domingo, 25 de marzo de 2012

Disentangling the channels of the 2007-2009 recession

James Hamilton reseña el paper

Scott Sumner dice al respecto:

"This is what we’ve been saying all along. The massive decline in NGDP after mid-2008 was by far the worst demand-side shock since the 1930s. A severe recession would have occurred after such a shock even if there had been no financial crisis at all. They don’t attribute all of the decline to monetary policy, but that’s probably because of the way they identify monetary policy: the fed funds rate. In 2003 Ben Bernanke pointed out that the fed funds rate is not a reliable indicator of monetary policy, and suggested that aggregates such as NGDP and inflation are “the only” reliable indicators. If you average those two indicators, then 2008-09 was the tightest money since the Great Depression. Had Stock and Watson used that indicator, they would have blamed the Fed for almost all of the Great Recession."

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