domingo, 27 de octubre de 2013

viernes, 25 de octubre de 2013

The best cure for "easy money" is easier monetary policy

Nick Rowe

"First off, there's a massive implicit fallacy of composition in that sort of reasoning. If you cut interest rates for one individual that individual will respond by borrowing more and spending more. But that is not how monetary policy works for an economy as a whole. Because one person's spending is another person's income. So if people spend $100 more per month then people earn $100 more income per month, so they don't need to borrow anything more in order to spend more. And it's even less true in an open economy, if a cut in interest rates causes exchange rate depreciation so foreigners spend more on Canadian goods, so Canadian net borrowing from abroad actually falls, as net exports increase.

Second off, low equilibrium interest rates are a symptom of weak demand for goods and low expected inflation. When people and firms fear continuing recession, desired investment will be low ("who will buy the extra goods we produce?"), and desired saving will be high ("what if I can't get a job?"), for any given real interest rate. So the equilibrium real interest rate will actually be lower when people and firms fear a continuing recession than when they don't. (The IS curve slopes the "wrong" way, in other words. Or the IS curve shifts left if people fear continuing recession because of overly tight monetary policy, if you prefer to think of it that way instead.)"

jueves, 24 de octubre de 2013

Sobre comercio interregional e internacional

Paul Krugman y Ryan Avent

"Interregional trade is not Ricardian. It is instead rooted in increasing returns and the sort of intra-industry trade that was explained by Mr Krugman's new trade theory.

Rapid trade growth over the past generation ("hyperglobalisation") is a different story, however. That trade has been associated with the incorporation in the global market of very large emerging economies that do have profoundly different factor endowments from rich-world economies: most notably in their relative abundance of cheap labour.

 ...

 Return to the example of the iPhone. Design and engineering work and the production of critical components operate in an increasing returns world. Assembly, by contrast, seems to be governed by comparative advantage.

 But that's still a somewhat dissatisfying narrative. The question is: why should assembly be driven by factor abundance while design is not? It's obviously not because emerging markets can't produce sufficiently talented engineers; they do, and quite often those engineers go to Silicon Valley to work.

 Mr Krugman has wrestled with these dynamics as well. Increasing returns can also generate geographic concentration. In the presence of certain positive externalities, productivity spillovers or complementarities or what have you, firms in one geographic area grow more productive as the area itself grows larger: more firms, higher productivity, more firms. So in one sense, increasing-returns-driven trade is what you get when the productivity benefits of local spillovers outweigh the potential gains from taking advantage of factor-price gaps. As the spillover benefits to bits of a supply chain erode (either because falling transport cost enable one to reap such benefits at greater distance, or because technology maturation means there is less of the tinkering and experimentation that seems to work best in clusters) those bits escape the pull of metropolitan gravity and fall toward places where the factors the bits rely on are cheapest."