jueves, 20 de junio de 2013

Credit crunch en China

Tyler Cowen

The Economist. Y otro

Sober Look

The Economist critica a Cowen

FT Alphaville aca, aca y aca. Otro. Uno de febrero

Sober Look

Entrevista a la analista de Fitch

¿Qué es el 'shadow banking system' de China?

The chinese financial system. Introduction and overview

Sobre la reducción de QE3

Ryan Avent

Calculated Risk

Matt O'Brien

FT Alphaville

David Glasner

Stephen Williamson

Tim Duy sobre el disenso de Bullard

James Hamilton: The end of low interest rates

Unwinding the world's biggest economic experiment

Entrevista con James Bullard

Scott Sumner vs Evan Soltas

Ryan Avent: Whose low rates are these?

"But the point of QE, in a broader sense, is that other things will not remain equal. Low interest rates are supposed to discourage saving and encourage borrowing and investing, adding to overall economic demand. That, in turn, should raise expected inflation, should raise the expected path of short-run real rates, and should reduce demand for safe assets. So QE should hold down interest rates relative to a baseline level reflective of broader conditions, which should then rise as a result. Effective QE could then produce a pattern of falling rates giving way to rising rates. Or it could produce a muddle. And the expected end of QE could produce similarly confusing price moves."

Mike Konkzal: Que era más importante de QE3, las compras o el guidance?

The all-powerful Fed

Barry Eichengreen cree que la crisis fue por el 'credit crunch' de China

Minutas de la reunión de la Fed. Comentarios de Tim Duy y FT Alphaville

Traders vs economists

Blogs review: The Bernanke doctrine and the separation between forward guidance and tapering

Keynes sobre ahorro y fondos prestables

Aca

martes, 11 de junio de 2013

Martin Wolf y FT Alphaville sobre el mecanismo de transmisión monetaria

Martin Wolf: The overstated inflation danger:

"Could the 2020s see an inflationary upsurge? Many believe so because there is a direct link – the so-called “money multiplier” – between the reserves of commercial banks held at the central bank and the lending by commercial banks to the public. They assume banks will lend more against these reserves, meaning that the current high level of reserves at the central bank is an indicator of future monetary expansion.

But a solvent bank can obtain the reserves it needs from the central bank. Moreover, the central bank will make sure that such a bank never falls short of reserves, since the alternative could well be a breakdown of the payment system. So what limits banks’ lending? The answer is: its own solvency and that of its customers.

So the equity capital of the bank is, accordingly, a far more important determinant of its ability to create money than its reserves. Moreover, should the central bank wish to lower excess bank reserves, it can either sell government debt to the public or raise their reserve requirements. Thus, the idea that a high level of reserves guarantees a future surge in broad money is false." FT Alphaville: When money multipliers become divisors

Sobre las currency wars

Jeffrey Frankel

Lo que está ssosteniendo los precios de las acciones es el aumento de las ganancias de las empresas en detrimento de las ganancias del trabajo

Gavyn Davies

"La inflación es buena porque reduce los precios"

Ryan Avent y Paul Krugman critican a Draghi

What the great natural experiment reveals about QE

David Beckworth

Confusion: High public debt levels and other sources of risk in today’s macroeconomic environment

Brad DeLong. Comenta Paul Krugman

Scott Sumner pide dejar las finanzas fuera de la macro

Aca. Nick Rowe comenta

Y los bancos también

miércoles, 5 de junio de 2013

Inflación de bienes vs inflación de servicios

Ryan Avent

"More simply, services inflation is about expectations and unemployment, while goods inflation is about global capacity utilisation. That makes sense; to a first approximation services are people. Goods are also people, a little bit. But they are more energy, materials, and supply chains. Goods prices rise faster when one of those three factors bumps up against constraints. Service prices rise faster when there aren't enough people to go around.

...

I like this way of digging into CPI data. But I also think it mostly reinforces the point that what monetary policy is really interested in is the labour-market output gap and its relation to wage growth. The prices for "stuff" don't matter, and we don't care if factories or stores close so long as everyone who wants to work can. The goods-services distinction is useful in that it shows us once again that on that basis the Fed has done far too little."

Las expectativas de inflación están cayendo a pesar de QE

Tim Duy

Mike Konkzal

Ryan Avent dice que la Fed no está intentando realmente

El FT: Inflation stays low and raises concerns for central bankers

Larry Summers sobre austeridad en EEUU

Aca y aca

martes, 4 de junio de 2013

Is technological progrerss accelerating?

Debate en The Economist

Sobre el mecanismo de transmisión monetaria

The Economist, específicamente sobre Europa

Brad DeLong sobre los motores de crecimiento del futuro

Aca

"Social science having to do with the economy is about trying to track the emergent property that arise from the fact that we as a world have decided to organize our extraordinarily productive and diverse 7.3-billion human global division of labour largely through decentralized market exchange, mediated by firms that are islands of hierarchy and bureaucracy swimming in a larger market-oriented albeit government-regulated sea.

It is clear to everyone who tries to do this seriously that figuring out what the emergent properties of this complicated decentralized systems are hinges on the details of the institutions: productive, organizational, and regulatory details matter and matter a lot. There is a very narrow limit to what you can do that is useful by following in the hyper-abstract footprints of David Ricardo. To say anything real, you have to say what’s going on in the industry.

All of you here are the people who understand what the institutional, organizational and regulatory details are, and thus have a chance of accurately determining what the interesting emergent properties are. You are the useful point of the spear. Too many of your colleagues in the social sciences are performing the equivalents of medieval scholastic theology precisely because they lack institutional knowledge of the details. Thus they write about the emergent properties of some other system, but not those of this system that we have here and now."

Do banks create money from thin air?

Aca

lunes, 3 de junio de 2013