martes, 22 de noviembre de 2011

Debunking the 'savings glut' thesis

Aca

Global savings glut or global banking glut? Yves Smith

Look after the unemployment, and the budget will look after itself: "Modern macroeconomics textbooks perpetuate the idea of a loanable funds market. In Greg Mankiw’s Principles, which is representative, we are taken back in time, to the theories that were prevalent before being destroyed by the intellectual advances provided in Keynes’ General Theory.

Mankiw assumes that it is reasonable to represent the financial system as the “market for loanable funds” where “all savers go to this market to deposit their savings, and all borrowers go to this market to get their loans. In this market, there is one interest rate, which is both the return to saving and the cost of borrowing.”"

The inflation fallacy

Nick Rowe

Lost decades: The real lesson from Japan

The Economist

Rules vs discretion en el Bullion Report

Aca

miércoles, 9 de noviembre de 2011

Shovel ready

Aca. Mas

Negative natural rates of interest and NGDP targets

Nick Rowe

Gustav Cassel foresaw the Great Depression

Aca. Tyler Cowen Gustav Cassel on Hoover's mistake and monetary policy failure

El fin del euro

Algunos que acertaron. Wynne Godley

The Economist

Felix Salmon

Going right to the top in Europe

Is this the end?

Death of a currency as eurogeddon approaches

What are they thinking?

The euro area is coming to an end

Who killed the eurozone?

Europe's disastrous summit

A disastrous failure at the summit

What's the best shape for the AD curve?

Nick Rowe

What moves the interest rate term structure?

La Fed de San Francisco

miércoles, 26 de octubre de 2011

Financial stability in emerging markets: Dealing with global liquidity

Simposio

Pre Keynesian monetary theories of the Great Depression

Aca

How to understand the limits of financial models

Aca

"After 20 years on Wall Street, I’m a disbeliever in grand financial theories. We do have a variety of financial models, but financial modeling is not the physics of markets. The similarity of physics and finance lies more in their syntax than in their semantics. In physics you’re playing against God, and He doesn’t change His laws very often. In finance you’re playing against God’s creatures, agents who value assets based on their ephemeral opinions."

"If you are someone who cannot distinguish between God’s creations and man’s idols, you may mistake models for deep laws. Many economists are such people."

"Economists for the most part have never seen a genuinely successful theory. The simple models they work with fail to reflect the complex reality of the world around them. That lack of success is not the fault of economists, for people, unlike matter, are difficult to theorize about. But it is the economists’ fault that they take their simple models so seriously."

"At the end of the cold war, we imagined a future with no more history, a smooth stroll into the sunrise accompanied by democracy, privatization and free markets. It hasn’t worked out that way. Authoritarian versions of capitalism have spread. Privatization has become oligarchy. The gaps between rich and poor, managers and workers, and owners and employees have widened. Economic models have misfired, and financial models have proved to be enormously inaccurate. More recently, the prescribed cure of a Keynesian stimulus to jump-start spending and employment has had only a muted effect. Low interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s cure for past crises and the progenitor of future ones, are being prescribed again. Lessons have not been learned."

"Any assurance economists pretend to with regard to cause and effect is merely a pose"

"Everyone should understand the difference between a model and reality, and no one should be astonished by the inability of one- or two-inch equations to represent the convolutions of people and markets."

"• Think of models as gedanken experiments. No model is correct, but models can provide immensely helpful ways to estimate value. I like to think of financial models as gedanken, or thought, experiments, like those Einstein carried out when he pictured himself surfing a light wave, or Schrödinger when he pictured a macroscopic cat subject to quantum interference. I believe that’s the right way to use mathematical models in finance, and the way experienced practitioners do use them. Models are only models, not the thing in itself. Models are better regarded as a collection of parallel thought universes to explore. Each universe should be consistent, but, unlike the world of matter, the world of financial concepts and the minds of the humans that interact with them are going to be infinitely more complex than any model you make.

Beware of idolatry. The greatest conceptual danger is idolatry: believing that someone can write down a theory that encapsulates human behavior and thereby free you of the obligation to think for yourself. A model may be entrancing, but no matter how hard you try, you will not be able to breathe life into it. To confuse a model with a theory is to believe that humans obey mathematical rules, and to invite future disaster."

A note on fiscal policy in a depressed economy

Brad DeLong

Central banks cannot 'do nothing'

Aca

Floating rate treasuries

Aca

The future of banking

Ebook

Why is Italy doing so much worse these days?

Tyler Cowen

Cuando el Banco de Inglaterra rompió sus reglas

Brad DeLong

sábado, 22 de octubre de 2011

The only way to save the economy: Break up the giant, insolvent banks

Muchas opiniones y análisis

La necesidad del mercado de deuda publica

Aca

Crítica a Hecksher-Ohlin

Aca

The capitalist network that rules the world

Interesante

Visiones marxistas de la crisis

Aca. Comentario de Yves Smith

The six myths of US monetary policy during the Great Recession

Aca. Otro post. Otro

Money is debt

Matt Rognlie. Más de Rognlie

Did God over invest in land?

Nick Rowe

lunes, 17 de octubre de 2011

Effects of sovereign government budget deficits on saving, reserves and interest rates

Randall Wray

Government budget deficits and the 'two-step' process of saving

Reserves, governement bond sales, and savings

Monetary policy as threat strategy. Chuck Norris and central banks

Nick Rowe

The case for a nominal GDP [NGDP] target

Goldman Sachs. Reacciones

Bill Woolsey

David Beckworth vs Greg Mankiw

Más reacciones

NGDP targeting is not about 'stimulus'

Brad DeLong. Reacción a Krugman. Comentario a DeLong. Otro

What is nominal GDP targeting

NGDP targeting links

Stephen Williamson. Respuesta a Williamson

What is NGDP targeting? Respuesta de DeLong

Diálogo socrático de DeLong

Nick Rowe

Three objections in NGDP level targeting

Implementing nominal GDP targeting via monetary authorities alone

Can Knut Wicksell beat up Chuck Norris? All Chuck Norris really needs is stamina

McCallum and targeting the growth rate of nominal GDP

Understanding NGDP targeting

Supply shocks and NGDP targeting

Kelly Evans on NGDP

Christina Romer también pide NGDP targeting

Nick Rowe: Negative natural rates of interest and NGDP targets

What is NGDP?

Nominal GDP targeting and stagflation

Diferencias entre varios esquemas de política monetaria

“Ben Volcker” and the monetary transmission mechanism

Daylight saving time and NGDP targeting

Tres respuestas a Greg Ip: Aca, aca y aca

The case for an NGDP target

The world is nominal

Friedman provided a theory for NGDP targeting


Reply to Noahpinion and Andy Harless on NGDP/inflation

NGDP targeting is not a Keynesian business cycle policy

Scott Sumner vs John Taylor. Varios le responden a Taylor

Does nominal GDP exist?

La Fed discutió la posibilidad de adoptar un objetivo de NGDP. Comentan Scott Sumner, David Beckworth, Bill Woolsey

Otro comentario sobre NGDP

George Selgin vs John Taylor. Scott Sumner interviene. Y David Glasner

Paper de Scott Sumner

Monetary policy can't fix all problems

Growth or level targeting?

Una explicación de NGDP targeting

Scott Sumner sobre NGDP y la crisis

Tyler Cowen y Scott Sumer sobre level targeting NGDP targeting: Some questions. Responde Scott Sumner. Y Nick Rowe. David Glasner. Bill Woolsey. David Andolfatto responde Algunas crìticas al NGDP targeting Argumentos a favor

Debt, deficits, and Modern Monetary Theory

Aca

The dark, dark era of money demand

Matt Rognlie

What causes hyperinflation?

Aca

What's needed in a macro model?

Matt Rognlie y Brad DeLong. Más de DeLong

David Beckworth

Japan’s deflation story is not really a horror story

Aca

The bloody rise of the dollar system

Aca

sábado, 8 de octubre de 2011

A primer on the new era of monetary policy

Matt Rognlie

Do balance sheets matter?

Aca. The NAIRU and balance sheets

Wicksell and the hot potato

Nick Rowe

The Rise of the Renminbi as International Currency: Historical Precedents

Aca

Artículo en VoxEU

Análisis sobre la crisis actual

Aca

Rajiv Sethi sobre Keynes

Aca

Why do some countries economies grow faster?

Respuestas usando estadística física

Keynes vs la NSN

Aca. Más

Capital is enough

Aca

From Marx to Goldman Sachs: The fictions of fictitious capital

Aca

The map is not the territory: An essay on the state of economics

Aca

jueves, 29 de septiembre de 2011

An introduction to marxist economic theory

Aca

Teaching Keynesian economics to your bulldog

DeLong explica Keynes a partir de la Teoria Cuantitativa

Y Brad DeLong sobre la crisis. Un comentario

An exorbitant burden

Implicaciones para EEUU de tener la moneda mundial de reserva

The macroeconomy exists

Aca. Segunda parte

Brad DeLong

A free lunch for America

Columna de Brad DeLong

India and the U.S.: A tale of two ineffective monetary policies

Aca

Entrevista a Daron Acemoglu

Aca

lunes, 26 de septiembre de 2011

Testimonio de Marriner Eccles en 1933

Wow. El testimonio completo

Otro aparte

Can Countries Default On Their Debts?

Criticas de Niall Ferguson

When markets freeze: Tobin’s q and QE

Columna en VoxEU

What can we learn from the policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution?

Aca

The fiscal multiplier revisited

Nueva evidencia a favor del estímulo fiscal

Spending multipliers

How big is the fiscal multiplier?

Misrepresenting the recovery from the Great Depression

Aca. Scott Sumner interviene

Bill Woolsey

Paul Krugman

Una reflexión sobre la cientificidad de la economía

Brad DeLong

Stephen Williamson

David Henderson

Scott Sumner otra vez

Long-term interest rates are a series of future short-term rates

Aca

domingo, 25 de septiembre de 2011

Economists defending the use of models

Aca

Críticas a Lucas

1,2

Krugman sobre Lucas.

Antonio Fatás. Comenta Mark Thoma

Stephen Williamson

Nick Rowe defiende a Lucas

Liquidity, bank capital and market reform

Aca

'Meltdown': Historia de la crisis

Aca

All money is helicopter money. Against the Law of Reflux.

Nick Rowe

Helicopter money: What does it mean?

Plan de rescate para Europa

Descripción de The Telegraph. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Bloomberg.

Yves Smith

Simon Johnson

David Beckworth

Análisis de Allen, Eichengreen y Evans

Leveraging the EFSF is attractive, but risky

What Predicts a Credit Boom Bust?

Menzie Chinn

The myth of Volcker's 1979 assault on inflation

Scott Sumner

miércoles, 21 de septiembre de 2011

Irving Fisher would have supported QE

Aca

A topological mapping of explanations and policy solutions to our weak economy

Resumen de las discusiones teóricas a raiz de la crisis

A simple but possibly correct theory of the capitalist financial process

Aca

Dos análisis de Brad DeLong sobre la crisis

1, 2

'Operation Twist'

Bill Woolsey. Más de Woolsey

Mark Thoma

Varios análisis

Scott Sumner. Otro

Yves Smith

David Beckworth

Gavyn Davies

Tim Duy

Paul Krugman. Brad DeLong le comenta

Everyday Economist

Otra vez Scott Sumner

The Economist

Edward Harrison

Stephen Williamson

Steve Horwitz

The twisted logic behind the federal reserve dissenters' arguments

Operation Twist and the limits of monetary policy in a credit economy. Crítica de Scott Sumner. Bill Woolsey.Woolsey otra vez.

Los efectos de la Operación Twist según James Hamiltom

Justin Wolfers

Explaining dissent on the FOMC board for Operation Twist

Is the Fed contributing to the credit/mortgage crunch?

How does Operation Twist differ from QE?

Se convertirá el yuan en la principal moneda de reserva mundial?

Debate en The Economist

A fiscal union for the euro: Some lessons from history

Columna en VoxEU

Res politica vs res economica

Aca

martes, 13 de septiembre de 2011

A consensus view on liquidity risk

Columna en VoxEU

Sobre la inversión en los 90s y en los 00's

Tim Duy

The debt hangover - Historia de la crisis

Parte II

Datos de pobreza en EEUU

Un resumen. Otro. Comentario de Jared Bernstein

Is it monetary or fiscal policy? Discurso de Adam Posen

Aca

The Effect of Individual Income Tax Rates on the Economy, Part 6: 1981 - 1993

Aca

Why was the S&L Crisis not a Systemic Economic Crisis?

Aca

lunes, 12 de septiembre de 2011

Bagehot’s Rule, Central Bank Incentives and Macroeconomic Resilience

Aca

Unemployment and stimulus

Aca

Understanding the Lesser Depression - Lecturas

De brad DeLong aca, aca y aca

Paper de Mishkin. Paper de Hall

Steve Keen on behavioral finance

Aca

Independent Bankig Commission de Inglaterra

El reporte. Comentarios de The Economist. 1 y 2

Un comentario

New Old Keynesians

Mark Thoma comenta

Comentario de Krugman. Y de Daniel Kuehn

Más de Tyler Cowen

martes, 28 de junio de 2011

Why austerity alone risks a disaster

Columna de Martin Wolf.

Moment of truth for the eurozone. Otra columna de Wolf

New Monetary Economics

Segun Tyler Cowen

Does competition make banking more dangerous?

Debate en The Economist

Unified Growth Theory

Aca

Discurso de William Dudley

Aca

The banking emperor has no clothes

Simon Johnson sobre Geithner

Economics as metaphysics and morals

Aca

The Emperor Has No Clothes, But Still He Rules: Three Critiques of Neoclassical Economics

Aca

Cómo se han disuelto otras uniones monetarias?

Tyler Cowen

Woodford on monetary and fiscal policy

Krugman

What can the Fed do?

Aca

Looking for the economy under the street lamp

Aca

The macroeconomics of doing nothing

Nick Rowe...

The busts keep getting bigger. Why?

Krugman

lunes, 11 de abril de 2011

Sobre complejidad en la economía

Aca

Krugman vs Modern Monetary Theory

Aca

Krugman. Respuesta de MMTers.Krugman otra vez.
Dos comentarios, 1 y 2
Randall Wray le responde a Krugman

Scott Sumner interviene

De nuevo responde Randall Wray

MMT – an accounting-consistent, operationally-sound theoretical approach

Flirting with MMT in the Financial Times

Relación entre inversión y desempleo

Paul Krugman vs John Taylor

Sobre el fin de la Guerra Civil de EEUU

The Economist

Sobre la Confederación

Stiglitz sobre la redistribución

Aca

Cuales son las condiciones previas de la hiperinflación?

Aca