jueves, 24 de diciembre de 2009

Convergencia en crecimiento

Acá se muestra que no ha habido mucha, en contravía de lo que el modelo neoclásico estándar de crecimiento predice. Creo que la falla tiene que ver con que el modelo estándar no da cuenta de la mayor parte del crecimiento de los países.
Un modelo mucho más completo y preciso es el de crecimiento endógeno que enfatiza el papel del conocimiento y la tecnología

martes, 22 de diciembre de 2009

Política monetaria en trampa de liquidez

Mark Thoma y la Fed de Cleveland

Una explicación de la trampa de liquidez

Otra vision

Otra explicacion

Analsis de Paul Krugman

Scott Sumner critica a Paul Krugman por ser inconsistente con sus posiciones. Krugman ha venido diciendo que en esta situacion de recesión la política fiscal es necesaria porque la política monetaria dejó de ser efectiva por estar ante una tampa de liquidez (tasa de interes nominal en 0%). Sin embargo, hoy Krugman dice que la Reserva Federal es la única capaz de generar empleo.

...Krugman responde a eso

Joseph Gagnon dice que la tampa de liquidez no acaba rango de maniobra de la política monetaria. Un resumen de su posición.
Comentario
Comentario de Brad DeLong
Comentario de The Economist

Dos papers de Michael Woodford: The zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy. Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap

'Monetary policy in a liquidity trap' Documento de la Fed de Philadelphia

----------
Helicopter drops of money: Debate

Paul Krugman explica la trampa de liquidez. Un comentario. Otro, de Brad DeLong. Otro.
Will a a helicopter drop of money stimulate aggregate demand? Post de Tyler Cowen.
Comentario de Scott Sumner

David Beckworth vs Krugman. Tyler Cowen comenta

Manejo intertemporal de la deuda pública

Rajiv Sethi
Andy Harless

Más de Rajiv Sethi

Rajiv Sethi otra vez

Sobre la crisis

Materiales para una materia sobre la Gran Recesión

La economía del conocimiento

Reseña de un libro sobre la economía del conocimiento, también llamada la 'nueva economía'.

lunes, 21 de diciembre de 2009

Hyman Minsky



"In Keynes's theory the proximate cause of the transitory nature of each cyclical state is the instability of investment; but the deeper cause of business cycles in an economy with the financial institutions of capitalism is the instability of portfolios and of financial interrelations."

"Whereas classical economics and the neoclassical synthesis are based upon a barter paradigm - the image is of a yeoman or a craftsman trading in a village market - Keynesian theory rests upon a speculative-financial paradigm - the image is of a banker making his deals on a Wall Street."

"The well-being of an ordinary business firm depends not only on the behavior of the market for its output and the terms on which it can hire inputs, but also on the behavior of financial markets; on the terms on which it can borrow, sell assets, or float shares."

"Once financial interrelations are admitted to be of vital importance as determinants of how an economy functions, money and the monetary system are the natural starting point for economic theory. The special significance of money in a capitalist economy does not follow from the fact that money is the means of payment. Money is a means of payment in a socialist economy, but money is not a key variable in the determination of output, employment, investment, and prices, because a socialist economy lacks the financial interrelations of a capitalist economy. Speculation about the value of productive assets is a characteristic of a capitalist and not a socialist economy. The relevant paradigm for the analysis of a capitalist economy is not a barter economy; the relevant paradigm is a system with a City or a Wall Street where asset holdings as well as current transactions are financed by debts."

"In a world with uncertainty, portfolios are of necessity speculative. The demand for money as a store of value exists because in a world where speculation cannot be avoided - where to decide is to place a bet - money is not barren. As has been pointed out earlier, money in our world has attributes of an insurance policy, in that possession of money protects against the repercussions of particular undesirable contingencies."

"Keynesian analysis, most especially in the alternative formulation, is institutional, in the sense that actual behavior , which determines how the transition in which we spend our time develops, depends upon how the existing institutions behave."

"No economy, controlled or uncontrolled, can long survive as a free society unless it is deemed equitable, unless it it seen to promote social justice. The promotion of social justice by economic means requires that the inequalities of income correspond to some consensus as to the differential worth of the contributions made to the cooperative effort that produces income."

"Economic systems are not natural systems. An economy is a social organization created either through legislation or by an evolutionary process of invention and innovation."

"Thus, economic policy must be concerned with the design of institutions as well as operations within a set of institutions. Institutions are both legislated and the result of evolutionary processes. Once legislated, institutions take on a life of their own and evolve in response to market processes. We cannot, in a dynamic world, expect to resolve the problems of institutional organization for all time. On the other hand, we cannot always be engaged in radically changing institutions."

"Economic policy must reflect an ideological vision; it must be inspired by the ideals of a good society."

"Social justice rests on individual dignity and independence from from both private and political power centers. Dignity and independence are best served by an economic order in which income is received either by right or through a fair exchange."

A moment among the minskians

Minsky's papers

Se necesita nuevo paradigma económico

Axel Leijonhufvud dice que se necesita un nuevo paradigma que se aleje de aquel de un sistema de equilibrio general estable. Tiempos de crisis existencial en la profesión...

Pero Arvind Subramanian resalta cómo los economistas se han reivindicado (en parte)

William White tambien critica la macro actual


Joseph Stiglitz pide un nuevo paradigma teórico

domingo, 20 de diciembre de 2009

Friedrich Hayek



"That a systematically pursued incomes policy means the suspension of the price mechanism and. before long the replacement of the market by a centrally-directed economy seems to me beyond doubt."

"...The reason is that it is now generally taken for granted that in a democracy the powers of the majority must be unlimited, and that a government with unlimited powers will be forced, to secure the continued support of a majority, to use its unlimited powers in the service of special interests - such groups as particular traders, 'the inhabitants of particular regions, etc."

"They will do so not because the majority is interventionist, but because the ruling party would not retain a majority if it did not buy the support of particular groups by the promise of special advantages. This means in practice that even a statesman wholly devoted to the common interest of all the citizens will be under the constant necessity of satisfying special interests, because only thus will he be able to retain the support of a majority which he needs to achieve what is really important to him.

The root of the evil is thus the unlimited power of the legislature in modern democracies, a power which the majority will be constantly forced to use in a manner that most of its members may not desire"

"This, however, was by no means the view of the classical theorists of representative government. John Locke made it very clear that in a free state even the power of the legislative body should be limited in a definite manner, namely to the passing of laws in the specific sense of general rules of just conduct equally applicable to all citizens."

"For Locke, and for the later theorists of Whiggism and the separation of powers, it was not so much the source from which the laws originated as their character of general rules of just conduct equally applicable to all which justified their coercive application."

"This older liberal conception of the necessary limitation of all power by requiring the legislature to commit itself to general rules has, in the course of the last century, been replaced gradually and almost imperceptibly by the altogether different though not incompatible conception that it was the approval of the majority
which was the only and sufficient restraint on legislation."

"Even the concept of the arbitrariness which democratic government was supposed to prevent changed its content: its opposite was no longer the general rules equally applicable to all but the approval of a command by the majority - as if a majority might not treat a minority arbitrarily."

"Differences in wealth, education, tradition, religion, language or race may today become the cause of differential treatment on the pretext of a pretended principle of social justice or of public necessity. Once such discrimination is recognised as legitimate, all the safeguards of individual freedom of the liberal tradition are gone. If it is assumed that whatever the majority decides is just, even if what it lays down is not a general rule, but aims at affecting particular people, it would be expecting too much to believe that a sense of justice will restrain the caprice of the majority: in any group it is soon
believed that what is desired by the group is just
."

"The device to which the theorists of liberal constitutionalism had looked to guarantee individual liberty and the prevention of arbitrariness was the separation of powers. If the legislature laid down only general rules equally applicable to all and the executive could use coercion only to enforce obedience to these general rules, personal liberty would indeed be secure. This presupposes, however, that the legislature is confined to laying down such general rules. But, instead of confining parliament to making laws in this sense, we have given it unlimited power simply by calling 'law' everything which it proclaims: a legislature is now not a body that makes laws; a law is whatever is resolved by a legislature."

"We should want an assembly not concerned with the particular needs of particular groups but rather with the general permanent principles on which the activities of the community were to be ordered."

John Maynard Keynes



"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become 'profiteers,' who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

"This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning. For the resources of nature and men's devices are just as fertile and productive as they were. The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid. We are as capable as before of affording for everyone a high standard of life—high, I mean, compared with, say, twenty years ago—and will soon learn to afford a standard higher still. We were not previously deceived. But to-day we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time—perhaps for a long time."

"The idea that we can safely neglect the aggregate demand function is fundamental to the Ricardian economics, which underlie what we have been taught for more than a century. Malthus, indeed, had vehemently opposed Ricardo’s doctrine that it was impossible for effective demand to be deficient; but vainly. For, since Malthus was unable to explain clearly (apart from an appeal to the facts of common observation) how and why effective demand could be deficient or excessive, he failed to furnish an alternative construction; and Ricardo conquered England as completely as the Holy Inquisition conquered Spain. Not only was his theory accepted by the city, by statesmen and by the academic world. But controversy ceased; the other point of view completely disappeared; it ceased to be discussed. The great puzzle of Effective Demand with which Malthus had wrestled vanished from economic literature. You will not find it mentioned even once in the whole works of Marshall, Edgeworth and Professor Pigou, from whose hands the classical theory has received its most mature embodiment. It could only live on furtively, below the surface, in the underworlds of Karl Marx, Silvio Gesell or Major Douglas.

The completeness of the Ricardian victory is something of a curiosity and a mystery. It must have been due to a complex of suitabilities in the doctrine to the environment into which it was projected. That it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue. That it was adapted to carry a vast and consistent logical superstructure, gave it beauty. That it could explain much social injustice and apparent cruelty as an inevitable incident in the scheme of progress, and the attempt to change such things as likely on the whole to do more harm than good, commanded it to authority. That it afforded a measure of justification to the free activities of the individual capitalist, attracted to it the support of the dominant social force behind authority.

But although the doctrine itself has remained unquestioned by orthodox economists up to a late date, its signal failure for purposes of scientific prediction has greatly impaired, in the course of time, the prestige of its practitioners. For professional economists, after Malthus, were apparently unmoved by the lack of correspondence between the results of their theory and the facts of observation;— a discrepancy which the ordinary man has not failed to observe, with the result of his growing unwillingness to accord to economists that measure of respect which he gives to other groups of scientists whose theoretical results are confirmed by observation when they are applied to the facts.

The celebrated optimism of traditional economic theory, which has led to economists being looked upon as Candides, who, having left this world for the cultivation of their gardens, teach that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds provided we will let well alone, is also to be traced, I think, to their having neglected to take account of the drag on prosperity which can be exercised by an insufficiency of effective demand. For there would obviously be a natural tendency towards the optimum employment of resources in a Society which was functioning after the manner of the classical postulates. It may well be that the classical theory represents the way in which we should like our Economy to behave. But to assume that it actually does so is to assume our difficulties away."

"... at any given time facts and expectations were assumed to be given in a definite and calculable form; and risks, of which, tho admitted, not much notice was taken, were supposed to be capable of an exact actuarial computation. The calculus of probability, tho mention of it was kept in the background, was supposed to be capable of reducing uncertainty to the same calculable status as that of certainty itself."

"Whilst, therefore, the enlargement of the functions of the government, involved in the task of adjusting to one another the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest, would seem to a nineteenth-century publicist or to a contemporary American financier to be a terrific encroachment on individualism, I defend it, on the contrary, both as the only practicable means of avoiding the destruction of existing economic forms in their entirety and as the condition of the successful functioning of individual initiative."

"A country is enriched not by the mere negative act of an individual not spending all his income on curret consumption. It is enriched by the positive act of using these savings to augment the caital equipment of the country."

"...But it should be obvious that mere abstinence is not enough by itself to build cities or drain fens... It is enterprise which builds and improves the world's possessions. If enterprise is afoot, wealth accumulates whatever may be happening to thrift; and if enterprise is asleep, wealth decays whatever thrift may be doing."

Trotsky on England (Where is Britain going?)

James Madison



"Wherever the real power in a Government lies, there is the danger of oppression. In our Governments, the real power lies in the majority of the Community, and the invasion of private rights is chiefly to be apprehended, not from the acts of Government contrary to the sense of its constituents, but from acts in which the Government is the mere instrument of the major number of the constituents."

"If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself."

"The house of representatives...can make no law which will not have its full operation on themselves and their friends, as well as the great mass of society. This has always been deemed one of the strongest bonds by which human policy can connect the rulers and the people together. It creates between them that communion of interest, and sympathy of sentiments, of which few governments have furnished examples; but without which every government degenerates into tyranny. "

"There is no maxim in my opinion which is more liable to be misapplied, and which therefore more needs elucidation than the current one that the interest of the majority is the political standard of right and wrong. Taking the word “interest” as synonymous with “ultimate happiness,” in which sense it is qualified with every necessary moral ingredient, the proposition is no doubt true. But taking it in the popular sense, as referring to immediate augmentation of property and wealth, nothing can be more false. In the latter sense it would be the interest of the majority in every community to despoil & enslave the minority of individuals; and in a federal community to make a similar sacrifice of the minority of the component States."

"A just security to property is not afforded by that government, under which unequal taxes oppress one species of property and reward another species."

"As a man is said to have a right to his property, he may be equally said to have a property in his rights. Where an excess of power prevails, property of no sort is duly respected. No man is safe in his opinions, his person, his faculties, or his possessions."

"Government is instituted to protect property of every sort; as well that which lies in the various rights of individuals, as that which the term particularly expresses. This being the end of government, that alone is a just government which impartially secures to every man whatever is his own."

"I own myself the friend to a very free system of commerce, and hold it as a truth, that commercial shackles are generally unjust, oppressive and impolitic — it is also a truth, that if industry and labour are left to take their own course, they will generally be directed to those objects which are the most productive, and this in a more certain and direct manner than the wisdom of the most enlightened legislature could point out."


"If Congress can do whatever in their discretion can be done by money, and will promote the General Welfare, the Government is no longer a limited one, possessing enumerated powers, but an indefinite one, subject to particular exceptions."


"Justice is the end of government. It is the end of civil society. It ever has been and ever will be pursued until it be obtained, or until liberty be lost in the pursuit. In a society under the forms of which the stronger faction can readily unite and oppress the weaker, anarchy may as truly be said to reign as in a state of nature, where the weaker individual is not secured against the violence of the stronger; and as, in the latter state, even the stronger individuals are prompted, by the uncertainty of their condition, to submit to a government which may protect the weak as well as themselves; so, in the former state, will the more powerful factions or parties be gradnally induced, by a like motive, to wish for a government which will protect all parties, the weaker as well as the more powerful."

"It will be of little avail to the people, that the laws are made by men of their own choice, if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be understood; if they be repealed or revised before they are promulgated, or undergo such incessant changes that no man, who knows what the law is to-day, can guess what it will be to-morrow. Law is defined to be a rule of action; but how can that be a rule, which is little known, and less fixed?"

The Federalist Papers
Essay on Property

Alexis de Tocqueville



"The general principles on which modern constitutions rest, the principles that most Europeans of the seventeenth century hardly understood and whose triumph in Great Britain was then incomplete, were all recognized and fixed by the laws of New England: intervention of the people in public affairs, free voting of taxes, responsability of the agents of power, individual freedom and judgement by jury were established there without discussion and in fact"

"It is not that there are no rich in the United States as elsewhere; indeed, I do not know a country where the love of money holds a larger place in the heart of man and where they profess a more profound scorn for the theory of the permanent equality of goods. But fortune there turns with incredible rapidity and experience that it is rare to see two generations collect its favors."

"The revolution in the United States was produced by a mature and reflective taste for freedom, and not by a vague and indefinite instinct of independence. It was not supported by passions of disorder; but on the contrary, it advanced with a love of order and of legality."

"It is understood that government centralization acquires an immense force when it is joined to administrative centralization. In this manner it habituates men to make a complete and continual abstraction from their wills; to obey not once and on one point, but in everything and every day. It then not only subdues them by force, but it also captures them through their habits; it isolates them and afterward fastens them one by one onto the common mass."

"But I also think that when the central administration claims to replace completely the free cooperation of those primarily interested, it deceives itself or wants to deceive you."

"A central power, however enlightened, however learned one imagines it, cannot gather to itself alone all the details of the life of a great people. It cannot do it because such a work exceeds human strength. When it wants by its care alone to create so many diverse springs and make them function, it contents itself with a very incomplete result or exhausts itself in useless efforts."

"What does it matter to me, after all, that there should be an authority always on its feet, keeping watch that my pleasures are tranquil, flying ahead of my steps to turn away every danger without my even needing to think about it, if this authority, at the same time that it removes the least thorns on my path is absolute master of my freedom and my life, if it monopolizes movement and existence to such a point that everything around it must languish when it languishes, that everything must sleep when it sleeps that everything must perish if it dies?"

"It is certain that despotism ruins men more by preventing them from producing than by taking the fruits of production away from them; it dries up the source of wealth and often respects acquired wealth. Freedom, on the contrary, begets a thousand times more goods than it destroys, and in the nations that know it, the resources of the people always grow more quickly than do taxes."

"There are no great men without virtue; without respect for rights, there is no great people: one can almost say that there is no society; for, what is a union of rational and intelligent beings among whom force is the sole bond?"

"The government of democracy makes the idea of political rights descend to the least of citizens, as the division of goods puts the idea of the right of property in general within reach of all men. There is one of its greatest merits in my eyes."

"There is nothing more prolific in marvels than the art of being free; but there is nothing harder than the apprenticeship of freedom. It is not the same with despotism. Despotism often presents itself as the mender of all ills suffered; it is the support of good law, the sustainer of the oppressed, and the founder of order. Peoples fall asleep in the bosom of the temporary prosperity to which it gives birth; and when they awaken, they are miserable. Freedom, in contrast, is ordinarily born in the midst of storms, it is established painfully among civil discords, and only when it is old can one know its benefits."

"Under its empire [that of democracy], what is great is above all not what public administration executes but what is executed without it and outside it. Democracy does not give the most skillful government to the people, but it does what the most skillful government is often powerless to create; it spreads restive activity through the whole social body, a superabundant force, an energy that never exists without it, and which, however little circumstances may be favorable, can bring forth marvels. Those are its true advantages."

"Now, if you accept that one man vested with omnipotence can abuse it against his adversaries why not accept the same thing for a majority? Have men changed in character by being united? Have they become more patient in obstacles by becoming stronger? As for me, I cannot believe it; and I shall never grant to several the power of doing everything that I refuse to a single one of those like me"

"I think, therefore, that one must always place somewhere one social power superior to all the others, but I believe freedom to be in peril when that power finds no obstacle before it that can restrain its advance and give it time to moderate itself."

"Therefore, when I see the right and the ability to do everything granted to any power whatsoever, whether it is called people or king, democracy or aristocracy, whether it is exercised in a monarchy or in a republic, I say: there is the seed of tyranny, and I seek to go live under other laws."

"If democratic peoples substituted the absolute power of a majority in place of all the diverse powers that hindered or retarded beyond measure the ascent of individual reason, the evil would have done nothing but change its character. Men would not have found the means of living independently; they would only have discovered - a difficult thing - a new face for servitude."

"As for me, when I feel the hand of power weighing on my brow, it matters little to know who oppresses me, and I am no more disposed to put my head in the yoke because a million arms present it to me."

"A government can no more suffice on its own to maintain and renew the circulation of sentiments and ideas in a great people than to conduct all its industrial undertakings. As soon as it tries to leave the political sphere to project itself on this new track, it will exercise an insupportable tyranny even without wishing to; for a government knows only how to dictate precise rules; it imposes the sentiments and the ideas that it favors, and it is always hard to distinguish its counsels from its orders."

"Equality not only rehabilitates the idea of work, it uplifts the idea of working to produce lucre."

"above these an immense tutelary power is elevated, which alone takes charge of assuring their enjoyments and watching over their fate. It is absolute, detailed, regular, far-seeing, and mild. It would resemble paternal power if, like that, it had for its object to prepare men for manhood; but on the contrary, it seeks only to keep them fixed irrevocably in childhood; it likes citizens to enjoy themselves provided that they think only of enjoying themselves. It willingly works for their happiness; but it wants to be the unique agent and sole arbiter of that; it provides for their security, foresees and secures their needs, facilitates their pleasures, conducts their principal affairs, directs their industry, regulates their estates, divides
their inheritances; can it not take away from them entirely the trouble of thinking and the pain of living?"

"Thus, after taking each individual by turns in its powerful hands and kneading him as it likes, the sovereign extends its arms over society as a whole; it covers it surface with a network of small, complicated, painstaking, uniform rules through which the most original minds and the most vigorous souls cannot clear a way to surpass the crowd; it soes not break wills, but it softens them, bends them and directs them; it rarely forces one to act, but it constantly opposes itself to one's acting; it does not destroy, it prevents things from being born; it does not tyrannize, it hinders, compromises, evervates, extinguishes, dazes, and finally reduces each nation to being nothing more than a herd of timid and industrious animals of which government is the shepherd."

"They imagine a unique power, tutelary, all powerful, but elected by citizens. They combine centralization and the sovereignty of the people. That gives them some respite. They console themselves for being in tutelage by thinking that they themselves have chosen their schoolmasters. Each individual allows himself to be attache because he sees that it is not a man or a class but the people themselves that hold the end of the chain."

"It is in fact difficult to conceive how men who have entirely renounced the habit of directing themselves could succeed at choosing well those who will lead them; and one will not make anyone believe that a liberal, energetic, and wise government can ever issue from the suffrage of a people of servants."

"A constitution that was republican at the head and ultramonarchical in all other parts has always seemed to me to be an ephemeral monster. The vices of those who govern and the imbecility of the governed would not be slow to bring it to ruin; and the people, tired of theor representatives and of themselves, would create freer institutions or soon return to lying at the feet of a single master."

"It is therefore above all in the democratic times we are in that the true friends of freedom and human greatness must constantly remain on their feet and ready to prevent the social power from lightly sacrificing the particular rights of some individuals to the general execution of its designs. In these times there is no citizen so obscure that it is not very dangerous to allow him to be oppressed, nor are there individual rights of so little importance that one can deliver them with impunity to arbitrariness."

"Nations of our day cannot have it that conditions within them are not equal; but it depends on them whether equality leads them to servitude or freedom, to enlightenment or barbarism, to prosperity or misery."

Discusiones sobre la reforma financiera

Squam Lake Working Group
NYU Stern School of Business
Propuesta de Oliver Hart y Luigi Zingales

Entrevista a Paul Volcker
Entrevista a Raghuram Rajan

Propustas de Alan Blinder y Hank Paulson

Importantes voces llaman a que se dividan los bancos grandes


Paul Krugman y The Economist dan sus opiniones

The Economist sobre el tamaño del sector financiero

Arnold Kling, Anil Kashyap y Simon Johnson dan sus opiniones sobre la reforma

miércoles, 16 de diciembre de 2009

Flujos de capital

Brad DeLong explica porque la liberalización de la cuenta de capitales no funcionó como se esperaba

Mankiw sobre la inversión

Algunas observaciones

Bajar el salario mínimo para incentivar el empleo?

Paul Krugman dice que no y en este documento resume el capitulo de la Teoría general de Keynes que trata sobre los salarios y el empleo
Mark Thoma también está en desacuerdo
Tyler Cowen y Bryan Caplan, en cambio, dicen que sí
David Sumner utiliza datos de la Gran depresion para mostrar que subir los salarios empeoró la situación
Krugman clarifica el argumento que había hecho antes. Y Tyler Cowen responde
Rajiv Sethi critica la utilización de equilibrio parcial para el análisis del asunto y opina también que reducir el salario no ayuda. Y aqui expande su argumento
Opinion de Casey Mulligan
Paul Krugman se une a Rajiv Sethi.....y se pone pesado
Más de Rajiv Sethi
Este artículo exlpica porque los microeconomistas no entienden macro
Krugman discute el problema de los salarios reales en España. Y David Sumner profundiza sobre el tema.
Rajiv Sethi de nuevo sobre los errores de los microeconomistas

Bill Woolsey 1
Bill Woolsey 2

Un poco de historia del salario mínimo en EEUU

miércoles, 9 de diciembre de 2009

Más sobre política fiscal

Brad DeLong, una vez más, describe el argumento a favor del estímulo fiscal en tiempos de crisis

Y aca otro completo analisis de la situacion

Más sobre el desarrollo de las ciudades

Why are some cities more entrepreneurial than others?

How competition saved New York

Mayor Bloomberg an unwitting symbol of his city


Edward Glaeser responde por qué vivimos en ciudades

Algunos beneficios económicos de las ciudades

'The information economy powers wage increases' En las ciudades con industrias basadas en la información y el conocimiento la crisis ha sido menos fuerte

El desarrollo de las ciudades y la 'maldición de los recursos'

Edward Glaeser de Harvard opina.

Que hacer con el salario durante las recesiones?

Es la inflexibilidad de los salarios un impedimento para alcanzar mayor empleo?

lunes, 7 de diciembre de 2009

Podcast sobre la crisis

Un resumen del que es tal vez el mejor de una serie de podcasts sobre la crisis económica. Los podcasts son parte de EconTalk, y consisten en entrevistas llevadas a cabo por Russ Roberts de George Mason University. Todos son interesantísimos. Muy recomendados

domingo, 6 de diciembre de 2009

Sabiduría de Pigou

Interesante análisis de Mario Rizzo sobre los impuestos y subsidios pigovianos. La frase de Pigou en la que él mismo recomienda prudencia respecto a su análisis es excelente:

"It must be confessed, however, that we seldom know enough to decide what fields and to what extent the State, on account of them, could usefully interfere with individual freedom of choice. Moreover, even though economists were able to provide a perfect blueprint for beneficial State action, politicians are not philosopher kings and a blueprint might quickly yield place on their desks to the propaganda of competing pressure groups. ‘Fancy’ finance, like a fancy franchise, whatever its theoretical attractions, has, at all events in a democracy, dim practical prospects."

viernes, 4 de diciembre de 2009

La teoría de Hyman Minsky

Un pequeño resumen

Lo poco que yo he leido de el me ha dejado muy impresionado. Es un análisis muy profundo de las economías capitalistas

Se debe reelegir a Ben Bernanke?

El NYT reseña el debate.

...Las citas que sustentan la posicion de los que no lo quieren reelegir son evidencia bastante fuerte de que los economistas no somos muy buenos para las predicciones


Esta es la opinion de Brookings Institution


16/12/2009: Ben Bernanke es la Persona del Año para la revista Time. Entrevista

La opinion de Mark Thoma

Peter Boone y Simon Johnson dicen que no

Éste video lo hace quedar (a él y a la profesión en general) muy mal

Opinion de Scott Sumner

Krugman y DeLong opinan

James Hamilton tambien

miércoles, 2 de diciembre de 2009

Crisis financiera

La mejor descripción de la crisis subprime....y de las burbujas especulativas en general
... Y una excelente pregunta de Calvin

Capitalismo

La mejor descripción del sistema capitalista. Todas sus instituciones están encaminadas a permitir y facilitar el intercambio voluntario entre personas, para lo cual es crucial la confianza.
Cuando esa confianza falla...

Empresas japonesas

Este artículo de The Economist muestra algunas empresas japonesas que producen insumos de alta tecnología cruciales para la economía global

Creación de empleo

Mario Rizzo utiliza el enfoque austriaco para que las políticas de creación de empleo están equivocadas

Creo que el enfoque austriaco tiene razón en afirmar que tanto el capital como la mano de obra son heterogéneas, y por tanto es muy difícil que puedan moverse entre diferentes sectores de la economía. Este es un análisis que se pierde tanto en la macro keynesiana como en la neoclásica, que no encuentran problema en hablar de 'capital' y 'trabajo' de forma agregada

Brad DeLong comenta sobre la teoría austriaca

Más del gran debate de macro

Definitivamente, el debate sobre el efecto del estímulo fiscal ha sido una excelente forma de aprender y repasar teoría macroeconómica... Más muestras de la divergencia de posiciones:

John Taylor dice que el estímulo no sirvió

Mario Rizzo usa teoría austriaca del ciclo económico para argumentar que no va funcionar. Aca tambien. Y agrega que Keynes ha sido malinterpretado

Jeffrey Sachs dice que el estímulo no es la política correcta

Cole y Ohanian dicen que el New Deal -política de estímulo fiscal por excelencia - en realidad alargó la Gran Depresión

Brad DeLong explica porque la política fiscal es la única opción viable que queda. Y da la razones por las cuales NO se puede estar en desacuerdo con políticas de estímulo fiscal

Martin Feldstein dice que el ARRA fue en error

Menzie Chin da argumentos teóricos de porque la política fiscal podría no funcionar

Hasset y Becker también son escepticos, al igual que Greg Mankiw

David Henderson muestra que los estudios de Christina Romer concluian que la política fiscal era poco efectiva

Lawrence Lindsey opina sobre el diseño de medidas de estímulo fiscal

Robert Skidelsky opina sobre los argumentos de lado y lado del debate

Brad DeLong deja en ridículo a Richard Posner

Macro

El principal debate económico de la actualidad en Estados Unidos se centra en el efecto del paquete de estímulo fiscal de setecientos mil millones de dólares, el American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

El debate versa sobre la existencia y magnitud del multiplicador del gasto gubernamental. A pesar de ser este un concepto básico de macroeconomía, el debate parece no estar en modo alguno conlcuido. Hay expertos (incluso premios Nobel) de lado y lado que continuan batiéndose fuertemente sobre el tema.

El último en contribuir al debate fue la Oficina Presupuestal del Congreso (Congressional Budget Office), pero ésete viene de tiempo atrás y ha cusado una verdadera reevaluación de la teoría.

Para la muestra:

Debate en el NYT

Un resumen del debate

Otro


Paul Krugman


Brad DeLong

Tyler Cowen y Brad DeLong

Un dialogo socratico de Brad DeLong

Mario Rizzo resume el contexto del mismo debate que se dio en los 30s.

... Ese mismo debate que Brad DeLong dice que la Universidad de Chicago simplemente olvidó. Este es el debate más encarnizado de todos. Brad DeLong y Paul Krugman versus Eugene Fama. Pesos pesados a lado y lado


Paul Krugman, por otra parte causó una verdadera crisis existencial en la profesión

La Universidad de Chicago respondió, pero esto sólo avivó el debate

continuará

Instituciones y desarrollo

¿Cuáles instituciones conducen al desarrollo de los países y cuáles lo perjudican? Y, si es posible identificar las 'buenas' instituciones, ¿es factible imponerlas con éxito en sociedades donde son desconocidas?

Este estudio reciente encuentra que las instituciones que impuso a la fuerza la Revolucion Francesa fueron beneficiosas para el crecimiento y el desarrollo. El desarollo fue menor en los lugares donde esas instituciones no fueron impuestas


Es sin duda evidencia fuerte a favor de la imposición de buenas instituciones, y en contra de dejar que las instituciones evolucionen lentamente basadas en la sabiduría descentralizada. Un análisis de esa tesis se puede encontrar aqui