martes, 11 de septiembre de 2012

Is the Fed really causing the sustained drop in interest rates?

Aca

"...this story falls apart because it ignores the fact that the term structure of the natural interest rate--the interest rate driven by the fundamentals of the economy--is being compressed too.  That is, given the weakened state of the economy the demand for credit is down, desired savings is up, and interest rates are falling as a result."

"To believe the Fed is directly responsible for the low interest rates, one must believe it is capable of pushing the yield on the 10-year treasury from just above 5% to about 1.5% over a 5-year period.  That gives the Fed way too much credit. ...
One can say, however, the Fed has failed to sufficiently respond to the heightened money demand created by these shocks and therefore has failed to stabilize aggregate nominal spending. This failure to act has allowed an economic slump to materialize which in turn has temporarily pulled down the natural interest rate. So, indirectly the Fed has been harming savers, investors, and financial intermediaries, just not in the way most observers believe."

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