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DeLong apuesta con Noah Smith
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"...Of that, it looks as though on net about 2/3 are purchases of U.S. government debt and government-guaranteed debt. Call it $350 billion/year. Current foreign holdings of U.S. government and government-guaranteed debt look to be about $6 trillion. $350 billion/$6 trillion means that foreigners are adding to their holdings of U.S. government and government guaranteed debt at a pace of about 5.8%/year. With world nominal GDP outside the United States growing at about 6%/year, that means that foreigners are… buying about as much U.S. Treasury, Agency, and other goverenment-guaranteed debt as they should in order to keep their portfolio shares constant.
It does not look as if it is the case that the US government is running out of its foreign-based debt capacity.
Could foreigners all of a sudden decided that there governments are not worse than the US government, decide to dump US government bonds and buy their own country bonds, send the dollar down, and have that falling dollar set off a upwards surge of import prices that then set off an inflationary spiral here at home? Yes. Is this a high probability scenario? I confess that I do not see how: imports are a relatively small fraction of total US spending, foreign governments are at least as feckless as our own and are subject to political risks that we are not, and nobody--literally nobody, not even the people Cochrane talks to directly--is willing to bet any money on Cochrane's favored scenario."
Un comentarista: "Note also that foreigners dropping US debt would cause high interest rates which would lower demand. Given the ratio of imports to GDP, this effect could dominate. And with the Federal Funds rate of around zero, the idea that the Fed could do nothing to fight inflation is really utterly totally crazy. Not to mention that inflation would be an excellent thing (better 5% than 2% and, I think, better 10% than 5% except for the fact that the Fed could and would respond)."
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