lunes, 21 de mayo de 2012

Scott Sumner critica a MMT

Aca "But there’s one problem with relying on interwar analysis—it’s very much a product of its time. Prior to WWII, pure fiat money regimes were treated as pathological cases, associated with hyperinflation. Most currencies were either fixed to gold, or expected to be fixed in the near future. Studies have shown that the expected rate of inflation is roughly zero under a commodity money exchange, which is just another way of saying the expected change in the relative price of gold was roughly zero. This had many important consequences for monetary policy: 1. There was almost no Fisher effect in interest rates. This meant that changes in nominal interest rates were probably a better indicator of the stance of monetary policy than today. (Although still far from ideal.) 2. Liquidity traps were more likely for two reasons; expected inflation was quite low, and the monetary authority could not credibly commit to a higher inflation target. That made fiscal stimulus relatively attractive. 3. The Phillips curve was more stable. 4. The nominal/real distinction was less important. The concept of the super-neutrality of money was not well understood."

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