martes, 28 de febrero de 2012
lunes, 27 de febrero de 2012
The balance sheet recession and The Great Stagnation
Tyler Cowen
"Many people point out that we are in a balance sheet recession. I agree with this view but wish to push it one step deeper. The negative wealth and income effects on debtors are positive wealth and income effects for the creditors. If the creditors were keener to invest that money in useful, productive activities the economy would be much stronger. Balance sheet recessions are most problematic when the investment channel is for some reason broken or especially weak."
"Many people point out that we are in a balance sheet recession. I agree with this view but wish to push it one step deeper. The negative wealth and income effects on debtors are positive wealth and income effects for the creditors. If the creditors were keener to invest that money in useful, productive activities the economy would be much stronger. Balance sheet recessions are most problematic when the investment channel is for some reason broken or especially weak."
viernes, 24 de febrero de 2012
jueves, 23 de febrero de 2012
Reflexión sobre el mercado laboral
Aca
"If you use a supply and demand graph to show the labor market, then this interpretation is a bad one. You have a supply of labor that exists before the fall in aggregate demand. This supply of labor does not shrink when aggregate demand falls — the number of people willing and able to provide their labor remains the same (or, may even grow, if new laborers are willing and able to enter the market). If we assume full employment at the original level of demand, then the bracket (on the above graph) showing the change in the quantity of labor employed represents the number of unemployed in a depressed market."
Daniel Kuehn coincide
"If you use a supply and demand graph to show the labor market, then this interpretation is a bad one. You have a supply of labor that exists before the fall in aggregate demand. This supply of labor does not shrink when aggregate demand falls — the number of people willing and able to provide their labor remains the same (or, may even grow, if new laborers are willing and able to enter the market). If we assume full employment at the original level of demand, then the bracket (on the above graph) showing the change in the quantity of labor employed represents the number of unemployed in a depressed market."
Daniel Kuehn coincide
Jared Bernstein sobre el estímulo
Interesantes observaciones:
"Numerous people who edited the memo judged the $1.8 trillion stimulus number on which Scheiber focuses to be implausible, and not just in optical and political terms, but in implementation and market terms.
The final memo that went to the President-elect makes this point: “To accomplish a more significant reduction in the output gap would require stimulus of well over $1 trillion–which would likely not accomplish the goal because of the impact it would have on markets.”"
"Keynesian economics is not as simple as measuring a hole and filling it up. The implementation constraints I noted above were real, especially if you’re concerned with the capacity of the economy to absorb the stimulus in a useful manner, not to mention the requisite accountability in tracking the bucks. And remember, there was a lot of other stimulus going on at the time, including monetary policy and in credit markets (TARP). I’m not arguing that $800 billion was the “right” number, nor that $1.8 trillion was “wrong.” But there’s more to this than measuring a hole."
"Numerous people who edited the memo judged the $1.8 trillion stimulus number on which Scheiber focuses to be implausible, and not just in optical and political terms, but in implementation and market terms.
The final memo that went to the President-elect makes this point: “To accomplish a more significant reduction in the output gap would require stimulus of well over $1 trillion–which would likely not accomplish the goal because of the impact it would have on markets.”"
"Keynesian economics is not as simple as measuring a hole and filling it up. The implementation constraints I noted above were real, especially if you’re concerned with the capacity of the economy to absorb the stimulus in a useful manner, not to mention the requisite accountability in tracking the bucks. And remember, there was a lot of other stimulus going on at the time, including monetary policy and in credit markets (TARP). I’m not arguing that $800 billion was the “right” number, nor that $1.8 trillion was “wrong.” But there’s more to this than measuring a hole."
miércoles, 22 de febrero de 2012
domingo, 19 de febrero de 2012
sábado, 18 de febrero de 2012
jueves, 16 de febrero de 2012
NGDP y la deuda publica
Scott Sumner
"Government debt is nominal debt, not indexed to inflation. That means the debt /GDP ratio is the ratio of debt to NGDP, not RGDP. Maybe that’s obvious, but most of the time when the media refers to “GDP” they mean real GDP"
"Government debt is nominal debt, not indexed to inflation. That means the debt /GDP ratio is the ratio of debt to NGDP, not RGDP. Maybe that’s obvious, but most of the time when the media refers to “GDP” they mean real GDP"
miércoles, 15 de febrero de 2012
lunes, 13 de febrero de 2012
domingo, 12 de febrero de 2012
Debate sobre el PIB potencial
Sobre un discurso de Jim Bullard de la Fed de St. Louis
Krugman
Tim Duy
Tyler Cowen
Noah Smith
James Bullard responde
Tim Duy y Mark Thoma. Paul Krugman comenta. Y EconoSpeak
Scott Sumner
Karl Smith
Crítica a la forma de medir la brecha del producto. Karl Smith
The potential output debate and the older natural rate and NAIRU debates
Mark Thoma sobre la medición de la brecha del producto. Crítica a Thoma
Life on the Philips curve
Krugman
Tim Duy
Tyler Cowen
Noah Smith
James Bullard responde
Tim Duy y Mark Thoma. Paul Krugman comenta. Y EconoSpeak
Scott Sumner
Karl Smith
Crítica a la forma de medir la brecha del producto. Karl Smith
The potential output debate and the older natural rate and NAIRU debates
Mark Thoma sobre la medición de la brecha del producto. Crítica a Thoma
Life on the Philips curve
viernes, 10 de febrero de 2012
jueves, 9 de febrero de 2012
Ireland can show Greece a way out of the crisis
Artículo de Ricardo Hausman
"Here’s the bad news for Greece: in our sample of 128 countries, it had the biggest gap between its current recorded level of income and the knowledge content of its exports. Greece owes its income to borrowed foreign spending it cannot pay back. It produces no machines, no electronics and no chemicals. Of every 10 US dollars of worldwide trade in information technology, it accounts for one cent."
"Here’s the bad news for Greece: in our sample of 128 countries, it had the biggest gap between its current recorded level of income and the knowledge content of its exports. Greece owes its income to borrowed foreign spending it cannot pay back. It produces no machines, no electronics and no chemicals. Of every 10 US dollars of worldwide trade in information technology, it accounts for one cent."
miércoles, 8 de febrero de 2012
martes, 7 de febrero de 2012
lunes, 6 de febrero de 2012
domingo, 5 de febrero de 2012
sábado, 4 de febrero de 2012
miércoles, 1 de febrero de 2012
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