Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Debate política fiscal. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Debate política fiscal. Mostrar todas las entradas
jueves, 25 de julio de 2013
domingo, 31 de marzo de 2013
lunes, 11 de marzo de 2013
miércoles, 6 de marzo de 2013
viernes, 22 de febrero de 2013
martes, 19 de febrero de 2013
sábado, 16 de febrero de 2013
domingo, 10 de febrero de 2013
jueves, 7 de febrero de 2013
viernes, 25 de enero de 2013
viernes, 4 de enero de 2013
viernes, 12 de octubre de 2012
martes, 9 de octubre de 2012
Underestimating fiscal policy multipliers
martes, 7 de agosto de 2012
domingo, 6 de mayo de 2012
martes, 27 de marzo de 2012
Crítica de Scott Sumner a DeLong y Summers
Aca
Lars Christensen lo apoya:
"Said in another way Scott – as do I – strongly believe that the impact of fiscal policy strongly dependent the monetary policy reaction to fiscal tightening or fiscal easing (Even today Scott has a discussion of the fiscal multiplier). In fact I don’t even think it is meaningful to talk about fiscal policy as something that can “stimulate” demand. Hence, in a pure barter economy we cannot imagine fiscal policy having any impact on demand as demand always will equal supply in a barter economy. The famous Say’s Law holds in a barter economy and as such there would be full crowding out of fiscal policy. Hence, fiscal policy will only have an impact on demand if monetary policy “plays along”.
Our view is however far from the consensus among economists. Rather most economists think that you can use fiscal policy to “manage” nominal spending/demand. Even economists who in general do not find activist fiscal policy desirable tend to think that fiscal policy can impact nominal demand.
Today after working on some macroeconomic models myself I finally realised that the problem is that the “models” that most economists have in their heads are missing an equation (or at least one equation). Hence, most economists – and here I am talking about practicing macroeconomists like central bank economists or financial sector economists like myself – tend to give very little or no attention at all to the monetary policy regime of the economy they are analysing.
Therefore, the missing equation in most “models” is the policy reaction function of the central bank."
Un par de links sobre Delong y Summers (y de otras cosas)
Lars Christensen lo apoya:
"Said in another way Scott – as do I – strongly believe that the impact of fiscal policy strongly dependent the monetary policy reaction to fiscal tightening or fiscal easing (Even today Scott has a discussion of the fiscal multiplier). In fact I don’t even think it is meaningful to talk about fiscal policy as something that can “stimulate” demand. Hence, in a pure barter economy we cannot imagine fiscal policy having any impact on demand as demand always will equal supply in a barter economy. The famous Say’s Law holds in a barter economy and as such there would be full crowding out of fiscal policy. Hence, fiscal policy will only have an impact on demand if monetary policy “plays along”.
Our view is however far from the consensus among economists. Rather most economists think that you can use fiscal policy to “manage” nominal spending/demand. Even economists who in general do not find activist fiscal policy desirable tend to think that fiscal policy can impact nominal demand.
Today after working on some macroeconomic models myself I finally realised that the problem is that the “models” that most economists have in their heads are missing an equation (or at least one equation). Hence, most economists – and here I am talking about practicing macroeconomists like central bank economists or financial sector economists like myself – tend to give very little or no attention at all to the monetary policy regime of the economy they are analysing.
Therefore, the missing equation in most “models” is the policy reaction function of the central bank."
Un par de links sobre Delong y Summers (y de otras cosas)
lunes, 19 de marzo de 2012
Empiezan a subir las tasas de interés en EEUU
The bond vigilantes are coming!
"Of course, the truth is that the USA is an autonomous issuer of its own currency. That means it can never “run out” of money (see here if you’re getting confused already). This is very different than what’s going on in Europe where each country is analogous to a state in the USA and a currency user. The difference is critical when understanding the economy and the markets. Because there is no solvency risk in the USA the bond markets are almost entirely controlled by the Fed (private credit markets are different). That’s right. James Carville was wrong – when you come back you want to come back as the Federal Reserve, not the bond market! Of course, we could print so much money (since we can’t run out of money we can certainly issue too much of it!) that inflation becomes wildly out of control and our currency collapses to nothing and causes the US to become a third world country, but that’s a very different phenomenon than the USA becoming Greece who can literally run out of Euro…."
DAvid Beckworth dice que el aumento de las tasas significa que se espera mayor crecimiento
Lars Christensen
"What we need to know when we look at market action is to know why asset prices are moving and the best way to do that is to compare how different asset markets are moving."
"Of course, the truth is that the USA is an autonomous issuer of its own currency. That means it can never “run out” of money (see here if you’re getting confused already). This is very different than what’s going on in Europe where each country is analogous to a state in the USA and a currency user. The difference is critical when understanding the economy and the markets. Because there is no solvency risk in the USA the bond markets are almost entirely controlled by the Fed (private credit markets are different). That’s right. James Carville was wrong – when you come back you want to come back as the Federal Reserve, not the bond market! Of course, we could print so much money (since we can’t run out of money we can certainly issue too much of it!) that inflation becomes wildly out of control and our currency collapses to nothing and causes the US to become a third world country, but that’s a very different phenomenon than the USA becoming Greece who can literally run out of Euro…."
DAvid Beckworth dice que el aumento de las tasas significa que se espera mayor crecimiento
Lars Christensen
"What we need to know when we look at market action is to know why asset prices are moving and the best way to do that is to compare how different asset markets are moving."
domingo, 11 de marzo de 2012
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