Updating the Philips Curve

Bruegel

Por que una inflación más alta sería beneficiosa en este momento

Jared Bernstein

On the meaning of inflation

The Economist

Just how helpful is inflation?

James Hamilton

"La inflación es buena porque reduce los precios"

Ryan Avent y Paul Krugman critican a Draghi

Inflación de bienes vs inflación de servicios

Ryan Avent

"More simply, services inflation is about expectations and unemployment, while goods inflation is about global capacity utilisation. That makes sense; to a first approximation services are people. Goods are also people, a little bit. But they are more energy, materials, and supply chains. Goods prices rise faster when one of those three factors bumps up against constraints. Service prices rise faster when there aren't enough people to go around.

...

I like this way of digging into CPI data. But I also think it mostly reinforces the point that what monetary policy is really interested in is the labour-market output gap and its relation to wage growth. The prices for "stuff" don't matter, and we don't care if factories or stores close so long as everyone who wants to work can. The goods-services distinction is useful in that it shows us once again that on that basis the Fed has done far too little."

Las expectativas de inflación están cayendo a pesar de QE

Tim Duy

Mike Konkzal

Ryan Avent dice que la Fed no está intentando realmente

El FT: Inflation stays low and raises concerns for central bankers

The case for 4% inflation

Laurence Ball y Paul Krugman

Why do we use core inflation?

Paul Krugman y Mark Thoma

Why we don't have deflation

Paul Krugman. The Economist comenta. Y David Beckworth. Y Scott Sumner

The Economist: The mystery of stable prices

Paul Krugman: Missing deflation

FT Alphaville: The changing nature of inflation

Tyler Cowen

Más de The Economist

Rudolph Havenstein, independent central banker during the Weimar inflation

JP Koning

Sobre las predicciones de la teoría austriaca

Brad DeLong vs Robert Murphy

Cullen Roche

Daniel Kuehn sobre Mario Rizzo

Lars Christensen

Como se parò la hiperinflaciòn de Alemania?

JP Koning

Is higher inflation the most painless way to escape current economic troubles?

Pregunta The Economist

Inflation in what and for whom?

Aca

Stock prices rose by 5% in two weeks - Guess why

David Glasner

Glasner señala que la correlación entre los mercados bursátile sy la inflación parece haberse roto

Will Krugman ban the term inflation?

Scott Sumner

Internal devaluation, inflation, and the euro

Paul Krugman. Ryan Avent comenta

DeLong vs Cochrane sobre la posibilidad de inflación

Aca

DeLong apuesta con Noah Smith

Màs

"...Of that, it looks as though on net about 2/3 are purchases of U.S. government debt and government-guaranteed debt. Call it $350 billion/year. Current foreign holdings of U.S. government and government-guaranteed debt look to be about $6 trillion. $350 billion/$6 trillion means that foreigners are adding to their holdings of U.S. government and government guaranteed debt at a pace of about 5.8%/year. With world nominal GDP outside the United States growing at about 6%/year, that means that foreigners are… buying about as much U.S. Treasury, Agency, and other goverenment-guaranteed debt as they should in order to keep their portfolio shares constant.

It does not look as if it is the case that the US government is running out of its foreign-based debt capacity.

Could foreigners all of a sudden decided that there governments are not worse than the US government, decide to dump US government bonds and buy their own country bonds, send the dollar down, and have that falling dollar set off a upwards surge of import prices that then set off an inflationary spiral here at home? Yes. Is this a high probability scenario? I confess that I do not see how: imports are a relatively small fraction of total US spending, foreign governments are at least as feckless as our own and are subject to political risks that we are not, and nobody--literally nobody, not even the people Cochrane talks to directly--is willing to bet any money on Cochrane's favored scenario."

Un comentarista: "Note also that foreigners dropping US debt would cause high interest rates which would lower demand. Given the ratio of imports to GDP, this effect could dominate. And with the Federal Funds rate of around zero, the idea that the Fed could do nothing to fight inflation is really utterly totally crazy. Not to mention that inflation would be an excellent thing (better 5% than 2% and, I think, better 10% than 5% except for the fact that the Fed could and would respond)."

Monetary policy, money and inflation

Paper de la Fed de San Francisco

Textbook monetary theory holds that increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. However, the Federal Reserve has tripled the monetary base since 2008 without inflation surging. With interest rates at historically low levels and the economy still struggling, the normal money multiplier process has broken down and inflation pressures remain subdued.