Alpha generation becoming difficult as risk asset correlations rise

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Sobre los precios de los alimentos

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The improving US labor market

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Brad DeLong sobre bonos

Aca y aca

Karl Smith también

Valuation matters: Equity vs bonds

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Do you remember when inflation was good news?

Scott Sumner

More on the recent anomaly in the real term structure of interest rates

David Glasner

Oferta y demanda de bonos del Tesoro

Noticia en Bloomberg: Record Treasury Demand Keeps Yields Low as Supply Shrinks

"The net supply of Treasuries, or gross issuance minus the amount of maturing debt, will fall by an average of $32.5 billion a month this year, to $77.3 billion, which will leave an average of $99.4 billion of investable cash a month from maturing debt, up from $68.1 billion in 2011..."


The truth about deficits and interest rates:

"Our federal government spends money through the congressional authorization and presidential approval process set forth in the United States Constitution (more or less). It also collects tax revenues in ways approved by congress and the president. Spending injects money into the economy; taxes subtract money from the economy.

When the government’s budget is balanced, it is taxing the same amount as it is spending. The adding and subtracting cancel each other out, so spending just redirects the economy in directions the government favors.

When the government runs a budget surplus, it taxes more than it spends. The tax subtraction from the economy exceeds the spending addition. The government, in this case, is diminishing the amount of financial assets available to the economy.

When the government runs a budget deficit, it spends more than it taxes. The spending addition exceeds the taxing subtraction. The government is adding to the amount of financial assets available to the economy.

Our government issues debt to the public when it runs a budget deficit, issuing a dollar in bonds for every dollar it spends in excess of taxes collected. But because the bonds and the deficit spending are perfectly matched, there’s no net added demand on the economy’s financial resources."

Eurozone government bond yields

Links

Prospects for the US labor market

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Sobre el 'equity risk premium'

Artículo de The Economist

GDP vs GDI

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Análisis de la economía mundial

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Cleveland Financial Stress Index

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"We were in a 'risk on' mode, with equity markets rising and bond markets falling, based on the idea that the economy was looking rather better than feared and that the Europeans had averted complete disaster with the Greek deal. But that story was already looking shaky when today, the Chinese PMI came in at a disappointing 48.1, the European composite PMI fell to 48.7 and the UK's retail sales dropped 0.8% in February."


"When the government dis-saves, of course, it spends more than it takes in. That spending either goes on goods and services (bought from the corporate sector) or is paid to workers or benefit recipients, and is then spent on goods and services. (Before you leap to comment. of course repeated deficits mean higher taxes later on, but that doesn't affect profit margins now.) Profits are 10.2% of US GDP, and the deficit is 7.6%, so one can roughly (very roughly, as there are many offsetting factors) say that the deficit is responsible for three-quarters of profits."