Scott Sumner: The implosion of a policy regime
"Even if the Fed does something semi-bold on August 1st, it most likely won’t be enough to change the underlying dynamic. And the reason is pretty basic; the Fed simply doesn’t have a grip on what went wrong. They had a policy regime that targeted short-term interest rates as a way of targeting inflation. Both of those decisions were flawed, and now the regime has collapsed. Markets are saying that the Fed may never again be able to using its preferred interest rate targeting mechanism. Let me emphasize that I still believe interest rates are more likely than not to eventually rise above zero. But these low yields are consistent with a non-zero probability of the US essentially becoming Japan."
Daniel Kuehn
Paul Krugman. Cullen Roche
Bye buy zero lower bound on nominal interest rates?
We have entered the world of disaster economics
The message of TIPS: Extremely weak growth ahead
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