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Las recomendaciones de David Laidler
Las recomendaciones de Scott Sumner y sobre el Tract on Monetary Reform
domingo, 30 de junio de 2013
sábado, 29 de junio de 2013
viernes, 28 de junio de 2013
miércoles, 26 de junio de 2013
martes, 25 de junio de 2013
lunes, 24 de junio de 2013
viernes, 21 de junio de 2013
jueves, 20 de junio de 2013
Sobre la reducción de QE3
Ryan Avent
Calculated Risk
Matt O'Brien
FT Alphaville
David Glasner
Stephen Williamson
Tim Duy sobre el disenso de Bullard
James Hamilton: The end of low interest rates
Unwinding the world's biggest economic experiment
Entrevista con James Bullard
Scott Sumner vs Evan Soltas
Ryan Avent: Whose low rates are these?
"But the point of QE, in a broader sense, is that other things will not remain equal. Low interest rates are supposed to discourage saving and encourage borrowing and investing, adding to overall economic demand. That, in turn, should raise expected inflation, should raise the expected path of short-run real rates, and should reduce demand for safe assets. So QE should hold down interest rates relative to a baseline level reflective of broader conditions, which should then rise as a result. Effective QE could then produce a pattern of falling rates giving way to rising rates. Or it could produce a muddle. And the expected end of QE could produce similarly confusing price moves."
Mike Konkzal: Que era más importante de QE3, las compras o el guidance?
The all-powerful Fed
Barry Eichengreen cree que la crisis fue por el 'credit crunch' de China
Minutas de la reunión de la Fed. Comentarios de Tim Duy y FT Alphaville
Traders vs economists
Blogs review: The Bernanke doctrine and the separation between forward guidance and tapering
Calculated Risk
Matt O'Brien
FT Alphaville
David Glasner
Stephen Williamson
Tim Duy sobre el disenso de Bullard
James Hamilton: The end of low interest rates
Unwinding the world's biggest economic experiment
Entrevista con James Bullard
Scott Sumner vs Evan Soltas
Ryan Avent: Whose low rates are these?
"But the point of QE, in a broader sense, is that other things will not remain equal. Low interest rates are supposed to discourage saving and encourage borrowing and investing, adding to overall economic demand. That, in turn, should raise expected inflation, should raise the expected path of short-run real rates, and should reduce demand for safe assets. So QE should hold down interest rates relative to a baseline level reflective of broader conditions, which should then rise as a result. Effective QE could then produce a pattern of falling rates giving way to rising rates. Or it could produce a muddle. And the expected end of QE could produce similarly confusing price moves."
Mike Konkzal: Que era más importante de QE3, las compras o el guidance?
The all-powerful Fed
Barry Eichengreen cree que la crisis fue por el 'credit crunch' de China
Minutas de la reunión de la Fed. Comentarios de Tim Duy y FT Alphaville
Traders vs economists
Blogs review: The Bernanke doctrine and the separation between forward guidance and tapering
martes, 18 de junio de 2013
lunes, 17 de junio de 2013
viernes, 14 de junio de 2013
martes, 11 de junio de 2013
Martin Wolf y FT Alphaville sobre el mecanismo de transmisión monetaria
Martin Wolf: The overstated inflation danger:
"Could the 2020s see an inflationary upsurge? Many believe so because there is a direct link – the so-called “money multiplier” – between the reserves of commercial banks held at the central bank and the lending by commercial banks to the public. They assume banks will lend more against these reserves, meaning that the current high level of reserves at the central bank is an indicator of future monetary expansion.
But a solvent bank can obtain the reserves it needs from the central bank. Moreover, the central bank will make sure that such a bank never falls short of reserves, since the alternative could well be a breakdown of the payment system. So what limits banks’ lending? The answer is: its own solvency and that of its customers.
So the equity capital of the bank is, accordingly, a far more important determinant of its ability to create money than its reserves. Moreover, should the central bank wish to lower excess bank reserves, it can either sell government debt to the public or raise their reserve requirements. Thus, the idea that a high level of reserves guarantees a future surge in broad money is false." FT Alphaville: When money multipliers become divisors
"Could the 2020s see an inflationary upsurge? Many believe so because there is a direct link – the so-called “money multiplier” – between the reserves of commercial banks held at the central bank and the lending by commercial banks to the public. They assume banks will lend more against these reserves, meaning that the current high level of reserves at the central bank is an indicator of future monetary expansion.
But a solvent bank can obtain the reserves it needs from the central bank. Moreover, the central bank will make sure that such a bank never falls short of reserves, since the alternative could well be a breakdown of the payment system. So what limits banks’ lending? The answer is: its own solvency and that of its customers.
So the equity capital of the bank is, accordingly, a far more important determinant of its ability to create money than its reserves. Moreover, should the central bank wish to lower excess bank reserves, it can either sell government debt to the public or raise their reserve requirements. Thus, the idea that a high level of reserves guarantees a future surge in broad money is false." FT Alphaville: When money multipliers become divisors
jueves, 6 de junio de 2013
miércoles, 5 de junio de 2013
Inflación de bienes vs inflación de servicios
Ryan Avent
"More simply, services inflation is about expectations and unemployment, while goods inflation is about global capacity utilisation. That makes sense; to a first approximation services are people. Goods are also people, a little bit. But they are more energy, materials, and supply chains. Goods prices rise faster when one of those three factors bumps up against constraints. Service prices rise faster when there aren't enough people to go around.
...
I like this way of digging into CPI data. But I also think it mostly reinforces the point that what monetary policy is really interested in is the labour-market output gap and its relation to wage growth. The prices for "stuff" don't matter, and we don't care if factories or stores close so long as everyone who wants to work can. The goods-services distinction is useful in that it shows us once again that on that basis the Fed has done far too little."
"More simply, services inflation is about expectations and unemployment, while goods inflation is about global capacity utilisation. That makes sense; to a first approximation services are people. Goods are also people, a little bit. But they are more energy, materials, and supply chains. Goods prices rise faster when one of those three factors bumps up against constraints. Service prices rise faster when there aren't enough people to go around.
...
I like this way of digging into CPI data. But I also think it mostly reinforces the point that what monetary policy is really interested in is the labour-market output gap and its relation to wage growth. The prices for "stuff" don't matter, and we don't care if factories or stores close so long as everyone who wants to work can. The goods-services distinction is useful in that it shows us once again that on that basis the Fed has done far too little."
martes, 4 de junio de 2013
Brad DeLong sobre los motores de crecimiento del futuro
Aca
"Social science having to do with the economy is about trying to track the emergent property that arise from the fact that we as a world have decided to organize our extraordinarily productive and diverse 7.3-billion human global division of labour largely through decentralized market exchange, mediated by firms that are islands of hierarchy and bureaucracy swimming in a larger market-oriented albeit government-regulated sea.
It is clear to everyone who tries to do this seriously that figuring out what the emergent properties of this complicated decentralized systems are hinges on the details of the institutions: productive, organizational, and regulatory details matter and matter a lot. There is a very narrow limit to what you can do that is useful by following in the hyper-abstract footprints of David Ricardo. To say anything real, you have to say what’s going on in the industry.
All of you here are the people who understand what the institutional, organizational and regulatory details are, and thus have a chance of accurately determining what the interesting emergent properties are. You are the useful point of the spear. Too many of your colleagues in the social sciences are performing the equivalents of medieval scholastic theology precisely because they lack institutional knowledge of the details. Thus they write about the emergent properties of some other system, but not those of this system that we have here and now."
"Social science having to do with the economy is about trying to track the emergent property that arise from the fact that we as a world have decided to organize our extraordinarily productive and diverse 7.3-billion human global division of labour largely through decentralized market exchange, mediated by firms that are islands of hierarchy and bureaucracy swimming in a larger market-oriented albeit government-regulated sea.
It is clear to everyone who tries to do this seriously that figuring out what the emergent properties of this complicated decentralized systems are hinges on the details of the institutions: productive, organizational, and regulatory details matter and matter a lot. There is a very narrow limit to what you can do that is useful by following in the hyper-abstract footprints of David Ricardo. To say anything real, you have to say what’s going on in the industry.
All of you here are the people who understand what the institutional, organizational and regulatory details are, and thus have a chance of accurately determining what the interesting emergent properties are. You are the useful point of the spear. Too many of your colleagues in the social sciences are performing the equivalents of medieval scholastic theology precisely because they lack institutional knowledge of the details. Thus they write about the emergent properties of some other system, but not those of this system that we have here and now."
lunes, 3 de junio de 2013
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